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Domestic Iron and Steel Market falls into the predicament of "Gold three not Gold"

发布时间:2018-3-13
Spring in March, this is the infrastructure to the steel spring season. However, the domestic steel market goes "gold three gold" dilemma.
Steel shares continued to fall under the trade stick
After a week of brewing, the United States finally knocked down its trade bar for the steel and aluminum industry.
In March 8, 2018, the US President Trump signed the order that imported steel and aluminum products threatened the national security of the United States, and decided to levy a comprehensive tax on imported steel and aluminum products. The tax rates were 25% and 10%, respectively, which temporarily excluded products from Canada and Mexico.
Trump had publicly declared the above policy tendency in March 1st. This prompted the European Union to announce in March 6th that it will extend the anti-dumping duty on seamless stainless steel pipes in China for 5 years, and continue to impose high tariffs of 48.3% to 71.9% on China's related products, which will take effect from March 7th.
Affected by the news, March 9th A shares of steel plate once again led the market, the futures market of black commodities also fell sharply.
As at the closing, CITIC primary steel sector fell 1.51%, nearly 5 day cumulative decline of 2.36%. stocks of Chinese iron and steel Ling fell 9.42%, Chongqing iron and steel fell 3.49%. the last five trading days, Valin steel has fallen 14.31%, Bayi Iron and steel fell 7.91%, down 7.7%. steel Minguang also
The main contract in futures market, iron ore fell 5.2%, coke fell 4.68%, steel fell 3.74%, down 3.33% HRC, coking coal also fell more than 3%, Shanghai aluminum fell 1.02%.
Europe and the United for the iron and steel industry to impose high import tariffs, how will form the impact on the domestic iron and steel exports to Europe's Yeyun? Chief analyst Zeng Jiesheng had to accept the securities times, e said in an interview with reporters, the European Union and the US government's action will trigger the world trade protectionism, and exports of iron and steel industry and the implementation of Chinese the move, indirect effect will be more obvious.
The price of steel domestic trouble and foreign invasion
After the Spring Festival in 2018, the domestic steel market in the short-term rise, quickly entered the downward channel. This week, steel futures there fell from the opening on Monday, although Tuesday for the resistance adjustment, but the next two days continue to fall sharply. On Thursday, the main force of steel and hot rolled prices respectively over the previous trading day down 3.68% and 2.93%. spot market and futures market appeared synchronization.
"The recent changes in the international environment and domestic policy leads to the mentality of the market become worse, external factors promote the steel price decline. From the internal point of view, the domestic steel market this spring are the fundamentals of supply and demand conditions." Zeng Jiesheng, after the Spring Festival, steel stocks continued to surge, hit a new high of nearly three years. A few weeks of agencies and website data released this week, the number of steel inventories reached about 18000000 tons, according to this growth rate, will soon reach the scale of 20 million tons. The demand in the terminal, due to the weather, around the infrastructure and engineering projects have not yet entered the stage of construction, the demand can not be released. It is understood because, to leverage the impact of the policy, and now the steel trade, capital and downstream enterprises are quite nervous, affect a lot of engineering project audit by PPP, dare to start.
According to the statistical data of Guangzhou gold LIAN, March 1st inventory has reached 2 million 200 thousand tons, not unloading and statistics about 30-50 tons, according to the usual demand good season to count, about a week to digest 20-30 tons, at least three months without any supplies, can return to normal inventory levels.
Analysts also said to generation of pearl, gold March performance is not satisfactory, because the mills and buyers before and after the Spring Festival are optimistic, active steel production, traders active stockpile, and after the holiday demand did not reach the expected effect. Although at the end of February to promote the emergence of a wave of speculation in steel prices rise, but still can not avoid the weakness in the steel city embarrassing situation. The current market speculation and weak tone coexist, taking into account the domestic downtown pressure on the economy is still large, high inventory, low demand for steel city, pull up was inhibited, the steel city will inevitably shock.
The whole is still optimistic this year
With the capacity to reduce prices, since 2017, the steel industry benefits enterprises also show renewed growth. As of March 8th, A shares have been listed steel companies in 14 annual report or announcement of results of letters, profit there are different degrees of growth. Among them, the Chongqing iron and steel net profit rose 199.82%, net profit also appeared SGIS an increase of 86.35%.
Will the steel industry in 2018 be able to maintain high profits?
A joint steel analyst Zhang Jinping believes that the main factors of price weakness, is a super February rise, two is the accumulation of inventory pressure, three needs to start slower. But these will gradually improved over time, steel prices are expected in March still have to pull up the opportunity.
Zeng Jiesheng believes that in 2018 continued to promote the reform of the supply side, the steel market is not too bad. But because demand is weak, the United States tax cuts, interest rates, trade disputes initiated on Chinese, effective capacity continued to rise and other factors, the steel market does not exist rose.

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